China Freezes US Relations Over Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may no longer be in Taiwan, but the mess she helped create continues to hover over the democratically ruled island.
China has reacted to Pelosi’s trip with far more than the customary angry rhetoric. Hundreds of Taiwanese food imports have been suspended, the website of Taiwan’s presidential office was hacked and taken offline (presumably by China), and the People’s Liberation Army has effectively surrounded Taiwan as it conducts multiday military drills. Chinese warplanes and ships have crossed the designated median line in the Taiwan Strait on multiple occasions, and at least 11 ballistic missiles were fired into waters near Taiwan’s coast, with at least one overflying the main island and landing in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Beijing is demonstrating to Taipei and its benefactors, namely Washington, that it possesses the capability to use force if necessary.
The Biden administration has spent days condemning China’s military actions as escalatory and wholly unnecessary. However, in international relations, what the other side thinks is equally relevant. And it’s abundantly obvious that, yes, China did, in fact, view Pelosi’s Taiwan sojourn as a big deal and one more indication of Washington chipping away at the “One China” policy, which has maintained the peace in Taiwan Strait relations for decades. Pelosi has failed to explain the national security justifications for her trip adequately and why she thinks it was worth the cost of adding ice to the already cold U.S.-China relationship.
As my friend, colleague, and China expert Lyle Goldstein wrote on Tuesday, “[It] is no exaggeration to say the future of humanity may depend on a pragmatic U.S.-China relationship.” He’s right; the United States and China hold approximately 42% of the world’s GDP and more than half of the world’s total defense expenditures (the U.S. spends more than two and a half times what China does on its military). A hypothetical military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan (or indeed any issue) would be as destructive to human lives and the world economy as it would be unnecessary.
Pelosi’s trip won’t incite a war, but it has pushed Beijing to jeopardize the multiple dialogues that helped keep its relationship with the U.S. on a somewhat stable footing. This Friday, the Chinese suspended cooperation with Washington in areas ranging from counternarcotics and transnational crime to illegal immigration and climate change. China has also canceled military-military communication channels.
China, of course, has agency just like any other country. The PLA could have chosen not to conduct a practice run for a future Taiwan embargo/war. It could have allowed meetings with the U.S. to continue as scheduled. It could have brushed the entire episode away and pretended like it didn’t happen (although no serious China scholar would consider this feasible, given such a high-profile trip from the head of the U.S. legislative branch).
Instead, Beijing’s response reminds us that the status of Taiwan is an absolute red line for the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing is prepared to sacrifice greatly on this issue. All U.S. engagements with China should start with this baseline understanding.
Washington Examiner
