By DAYO ADESULU
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has acknowledged the significant impact of Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery on global petroleum markets, particularly in Europe.
Key Highlights
- Reduced European Exports to Nigeria
- Since commencing operations in January last year, the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has ramped up production, including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
- OPEC noted that the refinery’s output has curtailed Nigeria’s reliance on petroleum product imports from Europe.
- This shift has introduced adjustments in global fuel flows, particularly affecting European gasoline markets.
- Exports Beyond Africa
- The refinery has expanded its influence by exporting petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to countries within and outside Africa.
- Market Effects in Europe
- According to OPEC’s report, the increase in Nigeria’s gasoline production has contributed to an oversupply in the Atlantic Basin.
- This surplus, coupled with high gasoline inventories in storage hubs like Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, has led to bearish market sentiments.
- OPEC’s Observations
- OPEC highlighted that the ramp-up in refinery outputs is likely to continue reshaping international trade flows.
- It noted a decline in Nigerian oil product imports in Q4 2024, bolstering the country’s external sector outlook.
Nigeria’s Crude Production Increase
- OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production reached 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2024, up from 1.477 million bpd in November.
- The Nigerian government reported a slightly lower figure of 1.485 million bpd for December, aligning with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
Global Ranking of Dangote Refinery
- The $20 billion refinery surpasses Europe’s largest refineries in capacity, with its 650,000 bpd output.
- Comparative figures include Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000 bpd) and BP Rotterdam (380,000 bpd).
Implications of Dangote Refinery’s Operations
- The refinery’s capacity not only positions it above Europe’s top refineries but also underscores Nigeria’s potential to shift from an importer to a significant exporter of refined petroleum products.
- As the refinery continues to ramp up operations, it is poised to further influence global petroleum trade dynamics.
