By DAYO ADESULU
Nigeria’s external reserves have climbed to $42.03 billion as of September 19, 2025, marking the highest level seen since September 2019. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), this surge signals renewed stability in the foreign exchange market amid improving oil earnings, stronger foreign inflows, and controlled outflows.
Historical Reserve Trends: 2019–2025
To understand just how significant this milestone is, here’s a snapshot of Nigeria’s external reserve performance over the past six years:
| Year | Approximate Reserve Level | Notes / Highs & Lows |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ~ $42.05 billion | Reserves peaked in late September 2019, which was the last time Nigeria crossed the $42bn threshold before 2025. |
| 2020 | Fell notably below 2019 levels | The COVID-19 pandemic, crash in oil prices, and global economic unsettledness contributed to declines. Exact numbers varied by month. |
| 2021–2023 | Moderate fluctuations | Reserves generally stayed below $42bn, battered by foreign exchange pressures, rising import demands, and reduced oil export income. |
| 2024 | ~ $40.19 billion at year-end | The CBN reported reserves of about $40.19bn, showing gradual recovery but still under historical highs. |
| 2025 (mid-year / July low) | ~ $37.18 billion (July 3) | This was the lowest reserve level in recent years; it triggered concerns over Nigeria’s ability to defend its currency and meet external obligations. |
| September 2025 | $42.03 billion (Sept 19) | Reserve climbed past the $42bn mark for the first time since September 2019, driven by consecutive daily gains and stronger FX inflows. |
What This Means Now
- Restored Record Highs: The current $42.03bn reserve level matches the 2019 high and confirms that Nigeria has recovered from years of downward pressure.
- Consistent Uptrend: Unlike previous temporary spikes, the recent growth has been consistent—13 increase days in 14 reporting days in September.
- Policy Confidence: Higher reserves give the CBN more leeway to manage interventions in the foreign exchange market and help stabilize the naira. Investor sentiment and import cover are improved.
Risks & Future Outlook
While the gains are welcome, analysts caution that sustaining this trend depends on:
- Continued strong oil production and export revenues
- Stable foreign exchange inflows, including non-oil exports, portfolio investments, and diaspora remittances
- Avoiding major global financial shocks or sudden reversals in capital flows
Some projections suggest reserves could reach ~$45 billion by the end of 2025 if current momentum holds.
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