Trump’s Middle East Gambit: From Bombs to Blogged Ceasefire

Timeline of Trump’s Ceasefire Push Between Israel and Iran

In June 2025, President Donald Trump embarked on a bold and controversial intervention in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. His strategy combined direct military action, public declarations, and rapid diplomacy. Below is a timeline of key events:

• June 14: Israel launched deep strikes on Iran-linked militias in Syria and Lebanon. Iran responded with over 80 missiles targeting northern Israel.
• June 20-21: President Trump ordered direct U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow, describing them as a “spectacular” success.
• June 23: Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, establishing a 12-hour mutual cooling-off window.
• June 24: Fighting de-escalated notably, although Iran publicly denied agreeing to any formal ceasefire.

How Oil Prices and Markets Reacted to the Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Trump’s abrupt shift from military aggression to peacemaking had immediate effects on global markets:

• Oil Prices: Initially spiking due to fears of a regional war, oil prices plunged by roughly 7% after Trump’s ceasefire declaration. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to around $66 per barrel, while Brent dropped below $70.
• Stock Markets: U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500, climbed on expectations that the conflict would not expand. Financial analysts praised the reduction in risk premium across global commodities.
• Market Psychology: Analysts termed the moment as a demonstration of Trump’s “strength first, diplomacy second” strategy, which briefly reassured investors.

Regional Reactions to Trump’s Military and Diplomatic Moves

Iran

Iran denied any official agreement and framed the situation as a unilateral U.S. move. Nonetheless, Tehran’s military operations noticeably paused following the announcement.

Israel

While Israel made no formal statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reduced the intensity of their operations. Sources close to the government suggested tacit acceptance of the ceasefire.

Gulf States

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations praised the de-escalation but stressed the need for a long-term solution. Markets in the UAE and Qatar stabilized after days of uncertainty.

Europe

The European Union welcomed the reduction in hostilities but criticized the U.S. for bypassing international diplomatic channels and acting unilaterally.

Russia

The Kremlin condemned the U.S. strikes as a provocation and reiterated its support for Iran, deepening geopolitical divides.

How Trump’s 2025 Approach Differs From Past U.S. Presidents